Ray Kurzweil On The Future of Technology

[Garritan]

Ray Kurzweil has been one of the people I admire most in the music and tech industry. He has been behind many of the innovations in the technology revolution. He helped invent the first optical character reading technology, the first text-to-voice synthesizer, computer-based musical instruments, and the first large-vocabulary speech-recognition system

His V.A.ST. technology in the Kurzweil samplers were years beyond the rest of the pack - the idea of being able to program and shape articulations in real-time was something the Kurzweil samplers did very well. Some of his concepts have inspired GPO.

I just read a fascinating interview with Ray Kurzweil - which you can read here: http://www.cio.com/archive/101504/interview.html

He says that in "20 years or so, we will be able to create virtually any physical product at almost no cost, just from information and fabrication techniques." Hmmm... this sounds like the Jetsons!

"Technology will be very mobile; it'll be so small that it'll be virtually invisible. Everybody will be online. Images will be written right to our retinas". Kurzweil says that one day, software will run inside our brains.

He also believes that by 2020, "we will be placing millions or billions of nanobots -- blood cell-size devices -- inside our bloodstream to travel into our brains and interact with our neurons." He believes machines and humans will merge.

He's also pursuing anti-aging quest. He claims that by the year 2030, "there's going to be very little difference between a guy who's 120 and a guy who's 30. And with so much of our lives spent in virtual reality, we'll able to express ourselves in many different ways. "

He writes about technology progressing "at an exponential pace because we use the latest generation of technology to create the next generation."

Fascinating read!

What do you think? Do you share Ray Kurzweil's visions of the future?

Gary Garritan

[CString]

Thanks for the post, Gary. I enjoy reading that sort of material. I didn't realize his knowledge was so broad.

To see if he's right just look to the military. They get everything first. If we start seeing "super" troops with nano implants for targeting, navigation, bio-night vision or infrared, etc. we will know he's on to something. Look at where the www started.

Then again, who knows what we are developing now. We were testing an atomic bomb at a time when a large percentage of rural America still didn't even have electricity and indoor plumbing! The engineering for the B-2 and F/A-117 was in place in the mid-late 70's. Who would have thought?

Very cool. I could stand to live to 130+. More time to write. :)
-Chad

[tgfoo]

That's a cool article. It really fascinates me to see all of these great advances in technology. It's exciting to see what new wonderful things are and will be coming out to make life better and easier. But at the same time, the idea of little nano machines floating around in my brain is kinda creepy. It also gives me that weird "technology is going to kill us all" vibe that I get when I watch Terminator or the Matrix (both of which i've probably seen far too many times for my own good :p ). It's just one of those odd subjects to think about.

[FredProgGH]

RK is an amazing person and I would trust his musings as much as anybodies. Of course, there is always the saying (to paraphrase) that the future will be stranger not only than we imagine but than we can imagine. But I think the changes of the next 20 years will be much more profound than those of the whole last century (and that's saying something.)

Me, I don't care if I live to be 130- unless they can make me thin!! :D :D

[Quasar]

Intriguing interview, but I have my reservations. By nature I tend to be both a Luddite and a technophobe, although I'm one who thinks it's cool to have the NY Philharmonic living in my apartment, which I do now, thanks to GPO. (So I'm a hypocrite, sue me!) ;)

I once read Alfred Nobel, commenting on his invention of dynamite, expressing the hope and belief that it would never be used for non-peaceful purposes. As it turned out of course, this optimism proved to be naive to the point of absurdity.

I have no quarrel with the broad point that humankind has both the privilege and the responsibility of "mastering" the global environment. But I am concerned that all these astonishing technological leaps forward, without a corresponding conscious spiritual leap in our understanding, will only lead to rain and ruin.

And I certainly don't want "software processes" running inside my body based on the decisions of HMO bean-counters who have already tapped out their health care premium quotas for the month.

There's an ancient Chinese proverb:

May you have the good fortune not to live in interesting times.

But this isn't our choice, and I've got to admit that living in interesting times is, well, interesting. Thanks for posting the link. :cool:

[Styxx]

He's also pursuing anti-aging quest. He claims that by the year 2030, "there's going to be very little difference between a guy who's 120 and a guy who's 30. "
120 years old? But, would a person feel 30 at 120 or just look 30? I personally don't find any comfort in the thought of living that long in this world. I don't mean to sound pessimistic just can't imagine what or how a person could fathom supporting him or herself through all those years. I would hope that technology would address more important problems like energy for the future, global warming, world food supplies, health care, THE HOMELESS, and other important issues necessary for the survival of the human race!
Oh, I don't know. I guess whatever happens, happen but personally living to 120 years old is not in my wishes. Just don't feel much like prolonging the difficulty. :rolleyes:
As far as the other musical technological inovations perspective for the future composers, cool.

[robh]

And the majority of us could not afford a retirement at 60-65 yrs of age in this particular scenario. . .

So, is this a good thing after all?

Rob

[Styxx]

Wow, ROBH! You don't look a day past 2 (days that is). :D

[robh]

Ok, I'll admit it. I'm the guinea pig in the anti-aging experiment mentioned above. I'm 37 and still need a diaper change! :D

Rob

[dewdman42]

The aliens that created us will come wipe us out way before our own machines do. (baahhh)

[DarwinKopp]

Ray K. always has something interesting and thought-provoking to say and this short interview is no exception. Commentary on opinion like this usually runs along utopia vs. distopia lines. Of course, Ray K. is extolling a nascent utopia here, which is always kind of nice to read. Utopia sells. However, the "realists" are usually automatically thrown into the distopia pile—no nanobots for you guys! (though we'll let you make a movie about it).

I fully believe that mankind, given enough time, can achieve anything technological (and if there are other sentient life forms throughout the universe, perhaps this is true of all such life forms). However, I seriously doubt that our social and (especially) governance systems can keep pace, in either a benign or supportive way. Our recent record (military-industrial, pollution, surveillance, nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.) is not all that encouraging, and every year seems to add another technologically-induced concern to the pile. With the way things are going, it's more likely we end up like Star Trek's 'Borg', than happy, independent, and productive duodecarians.

So much of what defines us as human hinges precisely on our limitations. Overcoming these limitations would be swell, but then we will have become another species entirely—no longer human, but descended from humans. And maybe this is what Ray K. is saying, and he's alright with that. As a species, we really need to agree where and how we proceed. We need to direct our technological future with intelligence and foresight, rather than let the technology direct us (as we've been doing).

Bringing this back to music, I never liked this cloying, preachy song when it came out in the 60s, but they were probably on to something. I wonder if Ray K. remembers it, and if so, what he would say?

In the Year 2525 (Exordium & Terminus)
Written by - Richard Evans

In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find...

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do or say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms are hanging limp at your sides
Your legs got nothing to do
Some machine is doing that for you

In the year 6565
Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter, too
From the bottom of a long black tube

In the year 7510
If God's a comin' he ought to make it by then
Maybe he'll look around himself and say
'Guess it's time for the Judgment day'

In the year 8510
God's gonna shake his mighty head
He'll either say, 'I'm pleased where man has been'
Or tear it down and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wondering if man's gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing...

Now it's been 10,000 years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew
Now man's reign is through
But through the eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away
Maybe, it's only yesterday...

In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find...

[SeanHannifin]

This guy's fascinating! I really hope what he predicts will come true, but I think some people tend to be too optimistic about the future. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

If you look at humans in the long term future, we'll probably be mostly wiped out by some natural disaster. It sounds bleak, but we'll be long dead. But it's sure to happen eventually!

[nexus]

Thanks for the post, Gary. I enjoy reading that sort of material. I didn't realize his knowledge was so broad.

Ray Kurzweil started out developing stuff for the military industrial complex, which he obviously found soul-sucking. He applied his (true) genius to more humane products like a machine that reads any book, for blind people. That led him to Stevie Wonder and the rest is history.

I thank Ray Kurzweil for pushing the envelope of realistic sampling so far it spurred the industry into finding cheap ways to compete, which happy for us, created the low-cost (under 3K) sampling explosion and our lives as musicians have never been the same! ;)

P.S.: forum members, don't be shaken by Ray's comments suggesting brain implants and cyborgs. He was/is a huge fan of sci-fi and genius of his sort always say outrageous things like that, believe me! (I've knowen a couple) :D

[FredProgGH]

If you look at humans in the long term future, we'll probably be mostly wiped out by some natural disaster. It sounds bleak, but we'll be long dead. But it's sure to happen eventually!
We're just an abberation anyway- Earth belongs to the insects :D