# Topic: Exit Poll Theory

1. ## Exit Poll Theory

If you have some question about the exit poll controversy, go to the CNN website, check the exit polls page, and do a little math. You will see Bush got 51% to Kerry's 48%. Sound familiar?

In Ohio, it was Bush 51% and Kerry 49%. That also matches the official voting results.

2. ## Re: Exit Poll Theory

Originally Posted by Lucas
If you have some question about the exit poll controversy, go to the CNN website, check the exit polls page, and do a little math. You will see Bush got 51% to Kerry's 48%. Sound familiar?

In Ohio, it was Bush 51% and Kerry 49%. That also matches the official voting results.
The exit polls were adjusted after the fact. We've already discussed this.

Here are the real exit poll numbers, posted on Tuesday. Later exit polls were slightly different, but the numbers pretty much held:

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

3. ## Re: Exit Poll Theory

Lie in the exit polls, then the opposition stays home. According to Robert Redford's campaign manager in "The Candidate" the other night.

4. ## Re: Exit Poll Theory

OK, let's see if I get it.

The early exit polls showing Kerry winning by 20% in some states and 5% in others were right and the actual vote showing Bush ahead was ...uh.. wrong, but then the exit polls were adjusted because they had to show Bush winning because ...Bush was losing there and they had to change it, but this was wrong because..... the exit polls were really right in the first place because...uh, then ....Kerry would win.

Do I have it right now?

5. ## Re: Exit Poll Theory

Originally Posted by Lucas
OK, let's see if I get it.

The early exit polls showing Kerry winning by 20% in some states and 5% in others were right and the actual vote showing Bush ahead was ...uh.. wrong, but then the exit polls were adjusted because they had to show Bush winning because ...Bush was losing there and they had to change it, but this was wrong because..... the exit polls were really right in the first place because...uh, then ....Kerry would win.

Do I have it right now?
I don't have any idea if you have it right. I just know the facts.

The numbers above are the numbers that were originally posted. I was there when they were posted and was jumping for joy (these numbers come directly from an email I sent to my wife about a minute after they were released) -- and all the freepers were crying buckets on their blogs. I sat through it all. Minute by minute.

They are different now, adjusted sometime Wednesday morning. There is a website showing an actual CNN graph that has been changed. If I can find the site again, I'll post it.

The exit polls in the states using electronic ballots without a paper trail do not match the final results.

The exit polls in the states using a paper trail are more or less the same as the final results.

These are the facts. I'm not making anything up here.

You can draw whatever conclusions you want. I'm simply saying something definitely smells. Feel free to try and prove me wrong. The more this is discussed, the better.

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