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Topic: Exit Polls Revisited

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  1. #1

    Exit Polls Revisited

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    Here's a great explanation about the exit polls, the final tallies and the "red shift":

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

  2. #2

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    This is really starting to smell bad.

    ed

  3. #3

  4. #4

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    from the link above:

    More Mitofsky mischief

    In May 2003, I suggested in this space that the exit polls would need more than a makeover. I also questioned the wisdom of putting veteran exit pollster Warren Mitofsky in charge. Shortly thereafter, I received a telephone call from Mitofsky, who, naturally, expressed his disagreement with my opinions. Later in the year, I heard from Mitofsky again when I criticized his exit polls in the California gubernatorial recall election.

    I’ll say this for him: Mitofsky is a great flack. And he must be a great salesman. Anyone who can talk the networks into giving him $10 million for the mess he produced is a charmer. But let’s be clear on one point. Despite Mitofsky’s great reputation, it is becoming clearer every election that he’s not very good at what he purports to do well: namely, running exit-polling operations.

    Even John Zogby, whose record for polling accuracy took another solid blow in 2004, was quoted as saying that “the exit polls were terrible.” Neal Shapiro of NBC News said after a recent network forum that the exit polls “should have been better.” The Washington Post’s managing editor said the exit polling “wasn’t worth what we paid for it.”

    To his credit, Mitofsky hasn’t gone into hiding. He’s been out there flacking. And he’s running a tag-team operation with his associate Joe Lenski. Lenski is the young, angry “bad cop” who attacks critics, while Mitofsky plays the role of the older, friendlier “good cop.” Lenski attacks bloggers, while Mitofsky soothes Jim Lehrer. Lenski savages the early release of numbers by his clients, while Mitofsky promises an explanatory report.

    These two charlatans have doubtless met and decided to bully and sweet-talk their way into a $20 million budget for 2008. But in the meanwhile, the two cops are being called upon to explain where the 10 million doughnuts went this time. The excuses have trickled out over time. One early excuse involved computer server problems. For $10 million, one would think that redundancy would have been part of the package. Subsequently, Mitofsky and others have acknowledged potential sampling problems.

    Perhaps Kerry voters were more willing to be interviewed than Bush voters. Perhaps the exit-pollster interviewers were forced to do their work too far from the polling place to get to a random sample of voters. Perhaps there were different voting patterns at different times of day that the exit pollster could not pick up. All of those problems, however, pale in comparison to the ethical issue I raised last year — the leaking of exit polls early in the day before the closing of the polls. During a phone conversation, Mitofsky expressed concern to me on this issue but said that he had no control over it. I suggested that as a professional, he might summon the courage to refuse to release the early results. He demurred.

    Mitofsky knows that those exit-poll results are the crack cocaine of Election Day talking heads. And as their dealer, Mitofsky needs the money that the crack heads will pay to satisfy their habits. Professional ethics and standards be damned. Warren says, “Show me the money.” Let’s hope he wasn’t playing the stock market Nov. 2 when his selfishness roiled Wall Street. Whatever happens in the future, the most serious consequence of Mitofsky’s 2004 mischief is still unfolding. Suspicious Americans are being led to believe that Mitofsky’s exit polls are a reason for questioning the legitimacy of this election. The exit polls were correct, paranoid types reason, but Republicans rigged voting devices to steal the election. There are more than a few people who firmly believe this. And the fact that Mitofsky supposedly won’t release his “raw data” reaffirms the suspicions of the paranoid.

    Before his legacy is totally besmirched, Mitofsky should take retirement and watch the election results with the rest of us next time.

  5. #5

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    I have come to the conclusion that if indeed there was a right-wing manipulation of the votes, the Republicans have really perfected their craft and learned from their past mistakes who aroused more than a small amount of suspicion 4 years ago.

    I believe that such manipulation would have to involve so many accomplices that the chances of not any one of them coming forward to the press are pretty slim (unless of course they have all been murdered).

    Let me just say this: if 10 or 20 or 50 years from now, the information comes out that indeed this election was rigged, and it was done so astutely and artfully that nobody had any idea that it actually happened, I would not be surprised at all.

    In the meantime, I'm not going to submit myself to the mental torture that I have already endured for the past 4 years, particularly since me or hundreds of others looking into this seem to not be able to come up with anything concrete.
    >>Kays
    http://www.musicbykays.com
    Music Composition for Feature Films, Television and Interactive Entertainment

  6. #6

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    I think that is probally a wise move. We are , after all. stuck with the B**tards.

    ed

  7. #7

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    Don't you perhaps mean D**tards!
    >>Kays
    http://www.musicbykays.com
    Music Composition for Feature Films, Television and Interactive Entertainment

  8. #8

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by dcornutt
    In May 2003, I suggested in this space that the exit polls would need more than a makeover. I also questioned the wisdom of putting veteran exit pollster Warren Mitofsky in charge. Shortly thereafter, I received a telephone call from Mitofsky, who, naturally, expressed his disagreement with my opinions. Later in the year, I heard from Mitofsky again when I criticized his exit polls in the California gubernatorial recall election.
    Keep grabbing at those straws...

  9. #9

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    You too rob,

    And when it's all over but for the crying...we'll see who ends up with a "broom". I hold no hope that should you be the one holding that broom, that you would even admit it. But, I'll still love you babe

  10. #10

    Re: Exit Polls Revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by dcornutt
    You too rob,

    And when it's all over but for the crying...we'll see who ends up with a "broom". I hold no hope that should you be the one holding that broom, that you would even admit it. But, I'll still love you babe
    You'll certainly be crying before the 2006 elections. If Kerry doesn't prevail here (and, as I've said, I doubt that he will), you'll be seeing the Repugs go down big over the next two years. Fraud, criminal charges, the whole nine yards. And the Repugs that want to distance themselves from the white house will join the impeachment bandwagon.

    Think Watergate only ten times worse. And it's all starting to come out now.

    And the thing is, you Repugs brought it on yourself. Inept as always....

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