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Topic: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

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  1. #1
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    Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

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    If everyones right about running out of oil, prices should never come down right? Well, in the 70's they did the same thing, Price gouging... Well, I predict that gas prices will come down dramatically after summer... Now, that doesn't give much credence to "We're running out of oil", Although they might say, Since we all are using less oil, that we now have a surplus... People, please think for yourselves, I am begging you... Don't let the price fixing that is going on to go unnoted... Everyone has pulled it on us, The utilites, once agancy's came down on them, they all the sudden weren't going bakrupt, Why? Because they burned us for enough money to pay the fines... The tomato industry recently said their crops parished in the cold, and prices went sky high, and TWO weeks later, we had too many tomato's to distribute...Even the meat industry in the 70's tried this price manipulation... People, please think.... After the earth being around for a billion years, we've depleated our oil supply in 80 years???...LoL

  2. #2

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    It does make you wonder: I believe the figure being bantered out there is that we have maybe 50 years oil supply left? Well, back when I was around 10 yrs old, they used the same figure. That was almost thirty years ago.

    Rob
    Last edited by robh; 04-29-2005 at 08:07 AM. Reason: I'm so old I can't add anymore!

  3. #3

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    The earth has been around for about 4 billion years, but oil formation requires somewhat unusual circumstances. The 70s oil shocks were artificial: OPEC got mad because we didn't hate Jews as much as they did. OPEC mattered because US oil consumption peaked around 1970 and has been sliding ever since, while consumption has been rising ( except for the period where we tried all those unpopular conservation measures.)

    The US production curve was predicted in the 50s, I think. and the actual curve is awfully close the the predicted one. Alaska's North Slope added a little shoulder on the declining side; ANWR is too small to make much difference.
    The US was one of the first countries to seriously exploit oil. Our soil has been prodded quite a bit over the years, so the fact that our production has declined in the face of rising prices should tell you that oil is indeed a limited resource.

    I think China's boom will bust, as all booms do. When it does, there will be less pressure on oil, and prices will come down. That will be the time to buy oil stocks. In 2000, when real oil prices were at or near an all-time low, I figured they would not always be at an all-time low. I put my entire IRA into oil, and did well. Unfortunately, I was too stupid and/or lazy to have much in the IRA, so I'm still poor. Also, I misjudged things and sold in the fall; now I'm no longer tempted to hug people filling big trucks and SUVs, thanking them for all they've given me.

  4. #4
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    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    Either we're running out of oil at an alarming rate, Or we're not, It's that simple, you can't tell me china is the reason our gas prices are so high, I don't believe that one friggin bit... Smoke and mirrors man... Why did our prices go back down after that episode in the 70's, If we're running out of oil, we should be paying $15 a gallon right now, or more... Geez, after what they told us in the 70's, we should pretty much freakin be out of oil right now... It's a tall ~~~ tale, and I for one am not going to fall for it... Anyone can come up with an excuse as to why all the sudden there's plenty of oil, and everyone forgets we got robbed by these crooks, and we're all happy again, then in 25 years from now, we will have forgotten enough for them to do it again, and we will fall for it all over again... Who's next??? The utilities have already taken their shot, is it going to be the meat industry again, I mean it's been 30 years, we must have forgotten that one right? You know how easy it is to manipulate prices? A dam rumor is enough to sway... We're getting nailed and we probably deserve it... I am also very tired of people who regurgitate what they hear on the news, especially the american news agencies... "Well it must be true, Or CNN wouldn't have posted it"... This kind of crap happens in micro-economics, here and there.. For example, a couple years ago here in Santa Cruz, we were on a water ration, even though we could look at the resevoir, and it was full, and it had rained harder more than ever, we had to conserve, They told us, it was because of the rising population, OK, well here it is, actually 4 years later, and waaay more populated, and our water supply is all the sudden, with no new resevoirs or nothing, we all the sudden have enough water for the whole world, despite the major spike in population here... As it turns out, we were selling water to areas outside of the area we supply water to, we channelled it south of us... And if you haven't noticed, since the economic downturn, EVERY private sector, and government sector has jumped on the "We're Broke" wagon, and it's too easy to exaggerate how broke you are, and sweep a little nestegg under the rug... There is a whole lot of ripping of going on, and it started when Bush took office, in fact, it started before Bush took office, after he won the election, and before being sworn in, he got up there and said, "We are in a recession", The American people looked around bewildered, "I dunno what he's talking about, but whatever", that was the start of the decline, and a liscense to take advantage...... Where's all the money Clinton had saved up, Noone cares cause the almighty Bush, He is our god, and we are his peoples(eyes glazed over)... I'm sorry guys, I think I've finally gotten fed up with this crap... I could go further with a multitude of lies that we americans take for fact.... I'm losing faith in the american people, and my enemy has grown because the our nation is so braindead..... Welcome to the United Coproration of america, it's not even a government anymore, it's just business baby!

  5. #5
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    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Blankenau
    I think China's boom will bust, as all booms do. When it does, there will be less pressure on oil, and prices will come down. That will be the time to buy oil stocks. In 2000, when real oil prices were at or near an all-time low, I figured they would not always be at an all-time low. I put my entire IRA into oil, and did well. Unfortunately, I was too stupid and/or lazy to have much in the IRA, so I'm still poor. Also, I misjudged things and sold in the fall; now I'm no longer tempted to hug people filling big trucks and SUVs, thanking them for all they've given me.
    Nope - I warned TIA about this 3 or 4 months ago when he started shouting and screaming about the DOW. Since then, the DOW has dropped about 600 points with him telling everyone to 'get into the DOW NOW!' You never get anywhere with hasty people, even if they have the best of intentions.

    China won't bust - but it will probably slow down. If, on the other hand, China did bust, you, in the USA and me in little old England would be in very big trouble. Very big. I mentioned China on this board over 18 months ago and I still stand by what I said- China is the big new economy of the world and the US and UK and European markets will have to deal with it. Nothing you can do about it.

  6. #6

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    I doubt that a Chinese recession will affect the US economy much, because they aren't really a trading partner, but an exporter. China exports to the US 30 or 40 times the value of its US imports. During a Chinese recession, there will be even more incentive to export, so we won't have to start making stuff again. If their imports drop from negligible to nothing it won't matter to the overall economy.

    I actually have some agreement with Steelhed; current oil prices are partly Bush's fault. Oil hasn't gone up that much in Euros, but a falling dollar means the US sees a big increase, and Bush's borrowing contributes to the falling dollar. But it's more fair to blame Reagan, since he managed to turn a fiscally conservative party into a cheerleader of the borrow and spend movement. It's more fair still to blame practically everyone, since both parties are equally committed to "free trade", which means that other countries are free to sell us stuff, and free to refuse to buy anything in return. If you add the budget deficit to the trade deficit, I'm pretty sure the total has been climbing no matter who the president is. John Kerry would have posted about the same numbers as Bush.

    Though it appears Steelhed won't copy my investment approach, it hardly matters which one of us is right. If someone is gouging us on oil, the best course is not to pay the gougers. Walk, bike, motorcycle, carpool, get a high-mileage car, stay home, whatever; except for OPEC countries, the rest of the world somehow manages not to drive all the time. If oil prices merely reflect economic reality, use the same remedies.

    I was gonna write something else, but thought it was too far off-topic. Can I get banned from OT for that?

  7. #7

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    I tend to believe that we're going to run out of oil. I also believe that we're being manipulated and someone's getting stinking rich. But we do need an alternative to oil.

  8. #8

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Batzdorf
    I tend to believe that we're going to run out of oil. I also believe that we're being manipulated and someone's getting stinking rich. But we do need an alternative to oil.
    That's why there is an OPEC; to gouge the customer as much as they think they can get away with, otherwise a free(er) market would, in my estimation, keep the price down because of competition.

    Rob

  9. #9
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    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    Paul, I'm not saying that china, and other countries dont have some effect on supply and demand, but it's greatly exaggerated... And yeah, we are already in a trade deficit with china, so yeah, the only way it's going to affect us is, china will produce less, and we start buying form japan again... But we're talking about oil, and how we are being scared to death by this rhetoric of oil becoming extinct... And it's working.. Here the media warns that gas will go up to $3 a gallon, so we naturally say, "Yep gas is going to go up to $3 a gallon", We just got primed!!! Thats part of what I'm talking about...

  10. #10

    Re: Watch oil prices go down after summer...LoL

    Opec is part of it, but I'm willing to bet that we have oil companies here doing a lot of looting.

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