• Register
  • Help
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14

Topic: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

Share/Bookmark
  1. #1
    andyt
    Guest

    Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Hi

    It seems to me that pretty soon this community is going to be very well catered for in terms of complete orchestral libraries and sections.

    Though no expert, I would guess after QLSO and SI have launched we may not see any more complete sample libaries for 5 years (??) until the next generation of technology offers something else ?

    1. What do other people think in terms of how the market will develop in the next 3 to 5 years ?

    2. Will the opportunities be in niche instruments, with emphasis on particular character and tone (e.g. Marten\'s FAT trombones)

    3. How about developing specialized sections ? say a BIG BAND BRASS section to complement the existing VSL, QLSO string sections ?

    where do people see this going ?

  2. #2

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    I don\'t think it will be as long as five years till we see 10 Ghz PCs with 18 GB of ram and a new technology of harddrives running at 15k rpm without the pain in the pocket that SCSI can be. A beast like that could run VSL or QLSO all by itself, and library developers tend to go for something that will truly demand more than technology can offer (i.e., they seem to design these things for a room full of computers.) So, no doubt, I reckon we are yet to see THE orchestral sample library..........

    My glorious forecast for the future is therefore:

    ******Drum roll and fanfare******

    A collosal orchestral sample library marrying the concert-hall recording techniques of QLSO and the intervals concept of VSL!!!!!!!!!!

    TADAAAAAAAAAAA [img]images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

    The cost in terms of musicians would be similar to VSL, but the cost in terms of renting the venue would be much higher. Perhaps the hall could be rented during the night, and you could get your musicians on a night shift!

    Editing the intervals would be a tad harder because of the hall decay, and you would have three stereo files to edit per sample!

    I guess we could expect a street price of a little more than double VSL (12k, perhaps?) and a project length of 5 or 7 years (better get started, then [img]images/icons/grin.gif[/img] ). The repercussion in terms of technology would not be too different in terms of poliphony (disk-streaming) than QLSO (which is more poly-hungry than VSL), but the ram necessary would be tripple that of VSL. (basically, VSL but with three files per sample)

    Nick, Doug, Herb, Dietz and Keith O. Johnson have some serious talking to do, dont they?? [img]images/icons/grin.gif[/img] [img]images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

    I wonder if it would be economically viable. How many could afford such a library? Would it break even? After how long? Would it be easy enough to use? Would people just hire an orchestra instead? Is there an organisation or producer with the money, time and guts to do this? Would he or she find an orchestra ready to crucify themselves like that?

  3. #3
    andyt
    Guest

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Leon,

    I think yor right about the technology aspect .. hadn\'t thought of it from that perspective.. a doubling of CPU, RAM and Disk storage is quite feasible within 3 years even and that opens lots of possibilities .. it would certainly make it cheaper to host the current libraries on fewer machines

    ... but to pick up on your point about the costs of developing a bigger n\' better library. They would be significant

    ... how many of these libraries sell anyway. Do VSL expect to sell hundreds or thousands. Anyone have a feel for the size of the orchastral library market ?

    ... and so for those who have shelled big bucks out on VSL and/or QLSO already, what percentage of them would be willing to pay even bigger bucks, 3 years or sooner. Expect the professional hollywodd composers might ... but what about the keen hobbyists or the aspiring.


    ... personally I\'d love to see a Big Band library of the standard of VSL/QLSO .. something that could do justice to say, the early Bond themes ... rasping, dirty, wah wah, jazz and swing brass.

  4. #4

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    I wanna get Nick, Doug, Herb, Dietz and Keith O. Johnson in the same room with lots of time and plenty of good wine. And a couple of daring investors too (if needed).

  5. #5

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    \"Do VSL expect to sell hundreds or thousands. Anyone have a feel for the size of the orchastral library market ?\"

    Everything I\'ve read in magazines, online forums, websites, etc, tells me the composer market is VERY small. I would guess in the hundreds, not the thousands. I would also guess this forum penetrates most of the active sample buying composer market. And that only looks like \"dozens\" of composers, not hundreds.

    This (small market) may indeed be one of many reasons why the orchestral libraries are priced as they are.

    With respect to the 5 year question, I do think sampling is going to be phased out, sooner rather than later. With computers getting more powerful, physical modeling software will offer more and yield better results.

  6. #6

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    In 5 years - Acoustic Modeling. Samples, though still useful, will not be the state-of-the-art for orchestral emulation.

  7. #7
    andyt
    Guest

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Acoustic Modelling ... Hmmmm.

    I don\'t know much about the state of the art, but I do have a Roland Virtual Guitar (VG8), which I absolutley adore. It is fantastic technology .. incredible sounds. I never play my guitar through anything but my VG8. (never need to change the strings either for that matter since the VG8 ALWAYS sounds pristine.)

    But I bought that in 1997, and the VG8 is still not THAT popular. Guitarists seem to prefer the real thing. It probably cost Roland a whole bundle of money to develop the physical models for a guitar and they invested that modelling a very,very popular instrument.

    My guess (again uneducated) would be that the costs to develop accoustic models of the main orchestral instruments could be huge. And again I wonder whether the market would be big enough to support such an investment. But then if someone were able to develop a tool to model instruments ... that matched the advances in acoustic space modelling then the cost might drop substantially.

    On the question of whether Orchestral Libraries put the livelyhood of performing muscicians at risk .... I dunno ... but surely it will foster a whole new generation of orchestral composers. Am I the only one whose musical interests have been revolutionised by the ability to compose for a full orchestra ? (confess I was purely guitar, drums, keyboards and bass before GOS)

  8. #8

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Originally posted by andyt:
    My guess (again uneducated) would be that the costs to develop accoustic models of the main orchestral instruments could be huge.
    <font size=\"2\" face=\"Verdana, Arial\">A lot of this research is going on at Universities such as Princeton, Stanford, etc. I believe many of the big synth companies help fund the CCRMA at Stanford - the remaining funding is from taxes. AT&T, Motorola and other telecom companies are investing in AM research for speech. These algorithms and approaches will also be applicable to musical instruments. Products like Altiverb and other impulse driven signal processing are AM though for architecture not instruments. I am guessing about the timeframe of course and you will need a very fast CPU or two. I\'m sure Bruce Richardson and others have a better insight concerning timeframe.

  9. #9

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Leon,
    We actually did a few interval/slur samples in the hall. Removing the original note and the reverb of it is extremely difficult and time consuming. We managed it, but doing an entire library this way would be impossible, right now. But, you shouldn\'t assume that EWQLSO is not expressive and doesn\'t have good legato. In many ways this library will set new standards in this area. Hold onto your hat. This library will be available next month.

  10. #10
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    Orcas Island
    Posts
    11,454

    Re: Market for Sample Libraries - next 5 years

    Originally posted by andyt:
    Though no expert, I would guess after QLSO and SI have launched we may not see any more complete sample libaries for 5 years (??) until the next generation of technology offers something else ?
    <font size=\"2\" face=\"Verdana, Arial\">\"Everything that can be invented has been invented.\" Charles H. Duell, U.S. Commissioner of Patents, in 1899, recommending that the Patent Office be closed because he thought that everything that could possibly be invented had already been invented.

    The best may be yet to come.... [img]images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

    Gary Garritan

Go Back to forum

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •